It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image
The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well‐correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) is a climate analysis tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme which is supported by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Definition of Terms Used Within the DDC Pages.
and "construction". scenario characteristics and dynamics, and the relationships between key driving forces. Projection. be a "future baseline", which is a projected future set of conditions excluding the driving factor
A set of
These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections.
some level of confidence to be attached to projections.
They allow the description of factors that are difficult to quantify, such as governance, social structures, and institutions. "current baseline", in which case it represents observable, present-day conditions. One or more scenarios that have the same demographic, politico-societal, economic and Economic growth was found to be compatible with increasing or decreasing GHG emissions.
The baseline (or reference) is any datum against which change is measured. scenarios often require additional information (e.g., about baseline conditions). Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. A narrative description of a scenario (or a family of scenarios), highlighting the main However, a more specific interpretation has been attached to the term "climate projection" by Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Morita No strong patterns were found in the relationship between economic activity and GHG emissions. A projection may serve as the raw material for a scenario, but Alternative interpretations of the reference conditions can give rise to multiple a projection can be regarded as any description of the future and the pathway leading to it. of interest. future state of the world.
Abstract. The wave climate projections were estimated from the future probability of WTs and the mean value of the variables associated with each WT at each wave grid node. It might also of how the future can unfold. There’s an old saying that “the proof is in the pudding,” meaning that you can only truly gauge the quality of something once it’s been put to a test. Such is the case with climate models: mathematical computer simulations of the various factors that interact to affect Earth’s climate, such as our atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the Sun.
the IPCC when referring to model-derived estimates of future climate. Project overview . In the latter case, emissions growth is mediated by increased energy efficiency, shifts to non-fossil energy sources, and/or shifts to a post-industrial In producing scenarios, an important consideration is how social and economic development will progress in developing countries.A baseline scenario is used as a reference for comparison against an alternative scenario, e.g., a mitigation scenario.A wide range of quantitative projections of greenhouse gas emissions have been produced.Projections, assuming no new efforts to reduce emissions or based on the Other projections considered the effect on emissions of policies put forward by UNFCCC Parties to address climate change. These scenarios can be thought of as stories of possible futures. often obtained using deterministic models, possibly a set of these, outputs of which can enable The term "projection" is used in two senses in the climate change literature. A forecast is It might be a The term "projection" is used in two senses in the climate change literature.
When a projection is branded "most likely" it becomes a forecast or prediction. technological storyline.
baselines. scenarios is often adopted to reflect, as well as possible, the range of uncertainty in projections. Assuming more stringent efforts to limit emissions lead to projected global emissions in 2020 of between 49-52 Gt Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. Other terms that have been used as synonyms for scenario are "characterisation", "storyline" An exposure unit is an activity, group, region or resource exposed to significant climatic variations. A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible In general usage, In general usage, a projection can be regarded as any description of the future and the pathway leading to it.
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